Today, 12/16/2025, Avery was out on the lake with the ATV checking on ice conditions. Areas that he checked were Waconia Bay, Center Reef, Pillsbury Reef, Wagener’s Bay and Harms Point.
The common ice thickness found today was between 7 to 8 inches. The overall range was between 6 to 12 inches. With today’s warmer weather, the snow has laid down some, but deeper drifts remain.
Why is there so much variance in the ice thickness?
Thinner ice was often found in areas that had more snow. In general, there is negative freeboard (lack of adequate ice flotation) in those spots due to the weight of the snow and lack of ice thickness, causing less buoyancy. If areas like this aren’t already flooded, they will be when you drill a hole or a crack runs through the ice nearby.
Thickest ice was found where the flooding had already happened and had a chance to saturate existing snow and then freeze all of that entirely during the very cold stretch we just came out of. That ice is a combination of good black ice and not as good slush ice on top.
Don’t be tempted to park on the ice near shore for a while. From what we have seen the shorelines tend to have more snow than the main lake. Expect less ice closer to shore. The same goes for around Harm’s Point, Waconia Bay Point, Coney Island, etc., more snow equals less ice.
As a reminder, due to snow cover and inability to visually see bad spots, we are not recommending going past Cemetery Reef and beyond towards the east side of the island, Anderson’s Reef, Red’s Reef and Reinke’s Bay to the northeast without doing thorough checking yourself. Those locations froze last. Also, springs we have seen in past years in those locations remain unmarked.
At this time our access will remain open for walkouts, ATVs (not side-by-sides yet) and snowmobiles only. We will update with any changes on Friday.
We’ll see you on the ice!